Must-reads: Greece collapse is bullish, Dick Cheney on twitter and more

Greece and the banks and Germany’s will to bail out other Euro countries. Have you heard?!  These are the headlines that matter today…at least according to the mainstream media.  I haven’t done a “Must-reads” posts with links in a while.  Here’s some of what I’m reading right now with some Cody-commentary on each.

Something Stinks in Euroland - Simon, an old friend of mine, finishes his article quoting another old friend of mine, Michael Darda, “There is potential for very large systemic global shock,” he says and paints a picture of European government defaults, and multiple countries leaving the euro.”  I agree with that part.  But what about the next sentence, the conclusion: “Eventually it could drag down the entire world economy, he says.”

I sure don’t think that Greece and Euro falling apart would be bad for the economy at all. Indeed, as I wrote the last time we were supposed to panic over Greece in Let the Euro die and the bull market resume - “Did you know that the DJIA was up 20% per year for the five years heading into the initiation of the Euro?   The markets gave more than 10% annualized returns for the decade before the Euro started.  And in the decade since, the markets have been roiled and rangebound.   In the first five years after the Euro started, the markets went straight DOWN.  Not up.”

Semi’s (and I dont mean the truck) – Some rather objective trading analysis for a tech sector and stocks like Texas Instruments, NSM and Altera that have been hit in the recent market downturn.

Hacker Rattles Security Circles and My Interview with former Vice President Dick Cheney - I didn’t listen to the interview, but this quote from the former VP of the “Free World” caught my eye, “On tonight’s show host Michael Castner asks the VP if he plans to tweet. Cheney says: “You loose your privacy when you get plugged into that system.” One of the truest statements from the Republican/Democrat Rulers in a long time.  And yes, I’m on twitter anyway, @codywillard.

TV Viewing Still Growing Making TV Stocks Attractive - A more bullish take than my own (see Sell! Sell! Cablevision admits their business model is “badly broken”, for example) on the TV industry in an Internet-video world.

Bartz quits Yahoo board: report - Yahoo’s up 12% since Bartz was given the heave-ho.  It was up 4% during her years running the place.  Yahoo’s probably got more upside than downside for the next few months.  Microsoft would also get a boost if they’d give CEO Ballmer the heave-ho, IMHO. Ho, ho, ho.

Indicator Update for 9/11/11 – Good discussion of current economic indicators layered up on top of a trading outlook.  From the article: “In conclusion, most of these charts still support a bullish outlook (albeit a less bullish outlook compared to a year ago), especially in the context of a market that once again has become extremely bearish. Although there has been some deterioration in the economy’s growth fundamentals over the past year and in recent months, but there is still no indication that the economy is at risk of another recession.”   Italics are mine. I mean, “No indication”?  Interesting.

Cody Willard: Trading updates on Apple, Cisco, gold and much more and Who says markets can’t go up during a recession anyway? – I met a bunch of subscribers to my independent service, TradingWithCody.com, for our weekly chat and we had a blast, as usual.

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Market insights from Jersey Shore and The Situation

You guys know how often I point out that the mainstream media’s explanations for a single day’s action in the markets is usually rather insultingly stupid?

At least this reporter finishes her article with a punchline admission of what the real catalyst for ANF’s 10% decline today was.  It wasn’t the Situation’s style choice of this company that has the stock getting killed.  No what killed the stock of this company that happens to have the most annoying, loud, obnoxious, dark, confusing stores on the planet getting killed in the markets today was their less than stellar earnings report.

But you know, think about how many times you read that “The markets were down a fraction of a percent today because XYZ” where XYZ can be:

  • “worries of Greek contagion”
  • “possibility of Asian bird flu spreading”
  • “H1N1 concerns”
  • “Dell and Intel are weak”
  • “(random, unimportant, meaningless, manipulated economic report like) the ISM was less than expected”
  • “IBM’s earnings missed by a penny and deflated tech which took the markets down”
  • or…well, you get the idea.

Anyway, this is a funny, but insightful article when you think about it:

Abercrombie stock falls after ‘Situation’ news By Ann Oldenburg, USA TODAY == 

The hip clothing company said in a news release (publicity stunt?) Tuesday that it’s concerned that having Jersey Shore star Mike “The Situation” Sorrentino seen in its clothing could cause “significant damage” to the company’s image.

Abercrombie says The Situation connection goes against the “aspirational nature” of its brand and may be “distressing” to customers. The Ohio-based retailer says it has offered a “substantial payment” to Sorrentino and producers of the MTV show so he’ll wear something else, reported AP.

Sorrentino has yet to comment on the diss, but the court of public opinion seems to have weighed in. According to CNN, the stock price for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) had fallen nearly 10% at one point today. Granted, the dip could be a reaction to Abercrombie’s earnings report, also out today.

== As for the markets and my trading today –  the market needs to build a base now.  A good base is something that we can steadily trade/invest with.  And this market’s getting a pretty decent base started after the last few weeks craziness.  So be it.

I bought some of our brand new App Revolution stock purchase today, using both common and calls as I outlined throughout the day.  And other than that, I’m continuing to let this market play itself out before making any other serious changes to the portfolio.  Apple, Arm Holdings and even lowly Akamai are starting to also look good to me at these levels though I’m not adding them just yet.  Or to them in the case of Apple, which I already own, of course.

See you guys tomorrow.

You can sign up for a free one-week trial of my independent trading diary (where you get access to all my stock and option trades as I do them in real-time) with just your email address by signing up here.

Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for Marketwatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com. At time of publication, Cody was net long Cisco, Marvell, Apple, Google and net short Wells Fargo.

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US Economy Update: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Cross-posted on my independent site, TradingWithCody.com.

If the markets had closed at 10am, the papers tomorrow would talk about Tuesday’s sell off continuing in the markets.

If the markets had closed at noon, the papers tomorrow would talk about Tuesday’s nice rebound in the markets.

If the markets had closed at 3pm, the papers tomorrow would talk about Tuesday’s intraday crash coming on top of yesterday’s crash.

But the markets closed at 4pm, so the papers tomorrow would talk about Tuesday’s huge spike rally in the markets.

In other words, folks, that is some crazy kind of action.  And frankly, those kind of intraday dislocations are not bullish for the very near term, though how this market trades for the near term with this kind of volatility will make everybody look like a genius or an idiot depending on what time the markets close each day.

Some of my favorite stocks, including Marvell, are trading at nearly 50% off their recent prices and others like Apple, Google and Microsoft are also down so big that if we can get one more spike lower, I think it’ll be an opportunity to truly back up the truck.  As it is, I’ve gotten about as much cash deployed now as I did back the last time the markets were tanked — back in late June.  I am also moving some more money into the account so that if we really get another sell off from these levels that I will have plenty of more firepower to get extremely aggressive.

I’ll see you guys tomorrow, but before I go, how about a little levity.  Is that a colon or a semi-colon after the words “US Economy Update” in the tease for Charlie Rose’s most recent episode on Hulu below?

US Economy Update: Rise of the Planet of the Apes.  Now that’s a Charlie Rose I might actually watch!

I didn’t do much trading today and I probably won’t today as the markets gyrate like this. I’d bought some lower yesterday and that’s good enough for now.

Cody Willard writes Revolution Investing for Marketwatch and posts the trades from his personal account at TradingWithCody.com. At time of publication, Cody was net long Apple, Google, Marvell and Microsoft.

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Three must-own stocks for the next gen TV wars

TradingWith Cody.com

I am thrilled and honored to once again be sharing a platform with my old friend, mentor and Jedi Master, James “The Bob Dylan of Wall Street” Altucher, as he’s now joined us here by bringing his blog to Marketwatch.  He wrote an article yesterday that got me thinking, about how TV ain’t dead.

In it, he cites two of my long-time favorite stocks, as being the next big winners of TV — Apple and Google.   I call them two of my long-time favorite stocks because, as long-time readers, including my friend James, know that I first cited for readers and bought Apple at $7 and Google the day it came public at $85 a share or so.  And I continue to own them now (I did sell them as I sold all my positions while I was an anchor on Fox Business from 2007 to 2010) for many of the reasons that James cites in his column, including how these two companies will continue to figure out ways to become dominant video providers beyond the iTunes and YouTube successes they already have.

But James forgot one other company that I think is a must-own right now in large part because it’s already showing some huge success in disrupting the traditional broadcast TV model — Microsoft with its XBox 360, “Entertainment Device” as the company likes to call it these days.   The company’s now sold some 53 million units of the XBox 360 device to end users.

But more important and more germane to James’ TV article and why I immediately thought of Microsoft’s XBox when he wrote about the next generation winners of the TV wars is this quote from, Frank X. Shaw, Corporate Vice President of Corporate Communications at Microsoft:

“While people are still playing a ton of games, 40 percent of all Xbox activity now is non-game. Put another way, we’re seeing an average of 30 hours of video consumption per month per Xbox, a number that is growing fast. And people are expecting more — more options, more games, more videos, more entertainment.”

30 hours of video consumption per month per Xbox RIGHT NOW!  Already.

I’m a big bull on Microsoft at these levels right now and have been buying both common stock and long-dated calls in the name in large part because the TV successes that Softee’s already having with the XBox platform.  Layer in Kinect and the incredible revolutions in robotics and gaming and entertainment and productivity that it will drive in coming years, along with the mainstays of Windows and Office and server software, and we don’t even need Windows Mobile to make much of a dent in order for Softee to go higher in coming quarters and years.

And sales of the XBox have indeed already accelerated since the introduction of the Kinect.   Don’t underestimate what the XBox and Kinect are about to do to your living room and how you entertain yourself in it.

TV ain’t dead.  And the revolution is being televised.  Not on your TV though.

Speaking of Xbox and the Kinect, I’ve been waiting for the right time and place to add a brand new stock the Revolution Investing portfolio next week.  You can sign up right and be the first to find out what the name is by visiting Revolution Investing, or you can sign up right now atTradingWith Cody.com and find out exactly what options I use in my personal account when I start buying it for myself next week.

At time of publication, Willard, author of Revolution Investing and Trading With Cody, was net long Riverbed and net short LPS of the stocks mentioned in this article though positions can change at any time. None of the information in this column constitutes a recommendation by Willard of any particular security or trading strategy is suitable for any specific person.

 

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Everything you need to know about TV as an app

The NYTimes has a really good article about the battle of how you’ll be watching mainstream TV shows and movies over the next few decades. It hits on the competition heating up between the biggest player in the field, Netflix, and its very well capitalized and smart competitors, Apple, Google and Amazon.

The company quickly hits on the concept of critical mass and how important it is to reach so that you can become the de facto standard of the industry:

“Netflix has raced to become ubiquitous. In addition to PCs, more than 100 types of devices can stream Netflix movies to a TV, including game consoles and Internet TV set-top boxes like Roku and AppleTV. The company says 61 percent of its 15 million subscribers streamed movies in the second quarter.”

And thusly, Netflix has already become a de facto standard for watching video in the 21st century. My mom and dad, aunt and uncle and two cousins all said to me this weekend in Dallas that they “Love watching Netflix.” Netflix is now a winner because it’s already hit such critical mass so early in this game.

Amazon has planted seeds to also become a de facto standard content delivery channel for both video, music, books and so much more and it’s also a winner because of that positioning so early in this game. If they can truly pull all those channels together it will become an even bigger success than it already is. Not sure I’m a bull at the current quote, though.

Google and Apple are both already de facto standard platforms with their iPhone and Android operating systems, but that’s not the same thing as being content delivery standards. Google’s also got the YouTube de facto standard that’s trying to become as de facto a standard for delivery of mainstream Hollywood content as it is for kittens playing piano. YouTube’s still got some work to go on that though. I hope that Google’s going to be continue to be more concerned about delivering ads and enabling other de facto standards over their Android system than actually getting into the mainstream music/video content delivery away from YouTube.

And, yeah, Apple’s closed system pretty much ensures that they’ll continue to find a lot of success selling and delivering mainstream Hollywood content. They really have positioned themselves so well in so many ways.

As a parting shot, I’d note that the article doesn’t even bother to mention Microsoft. I guess Steve Ballmer was distracted with the Kin while his competitors were preparing for a battle that actually matters. Sigh, I’m a Softee bull, partly because I just don’t think the company can keep messing up everything this badly forever. Right?

Finally, I’ll leave you with these Top 5 Apps Lists from AppConsumer.com all about which apps are best enabling all of this video watching in this 21st century world we live in:

Top 5 Best TV and Movie Apps for the iPad

Top 5 Best iPad Apps for the NFL Fan

Top 5 Best Android Shopping and Entertainment Apps for Women

Top 5 Best Video Apps for iPad

Top 5 iPhone Apps for TV Lovers

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How a Musicial Series on TV is driving your app revolution

Is Glee a television show? Or is it one of the first true multi-media content properties that’s actually figured out how to leverage the wonders of free distribution on the Internet, the shift to app-driven technologies and networks?

I can’t say I’ve seen many actual episodes of Glee (though I will admit to having enjoyed my bud’s Neil Patrick Harris’ turn as a bitter ex-glee-er and watched it a second time when it randomly came on as a replay just last week), but like the rest of you, I’ve seen the Gleek movement explode all around. And speaking of geeks, I think it’s Glee’s embrace of those geeks who love their gadgets and their apps…and their band/glee club music…that has helped the show reach its own special kind of critical mass that I write about as being so important all the time.

Think about the places Glee shows up. It’s surely not the first musical TV series to see its songs become hits….but the Glee soundtracks are some of the only consistent bigsellers on iTunes, Amazon, and even on that old physical medium, the CD. TV and music. Great. But then there’s the Glee App. Again, I can’t say I’ve ever even used it…but take a look at a couple rather brilliantly done YouTube videos that Gleeks made using their smartphones and home computers:

WantOWLE uses it to drum up some sales:

The Misunderstoods use it to simply entertain us:

Who woulda thunk that a high school musical series on network television would become one of the most fun apps…and one that actually drives us to spend more time engaging each other and not just passively sitting in front of the TV? What’s next – video game consoles that actually make people get active to play? Oh, wait…here comes Microsoft Xbox 360′s Kinetic technology which does exactly that. People, we might actually be living through a social revolution that’s going to be good for us after all, no?

As video-chat on our iPhones/Androids starts to hit critical mass in coming quarters, can you imagine what kind of cool, crazy, fun, and even helpful apps will be taking advantage of it? Can you imagine how cool the apps from these big-money media conglomerates really could be? I’ve been hard at work with Bob Weif from the Grateful Dead working on a business that will take advantage of the potential for wiki broadcast news, for example. I figure there’s smarter kids than me out there figuring out even wilder and potentially society-changing apps.

The upshot for us investors then? Big media conglomerates are slowly but surely moving to embrace these new technologies. The bears have been telling us that TV and broadcast are dead…that big-money video content is headed down the same path as big money music content did and the same path big money print (ie, newspapers and magazines) did. But the Glee eco-system underscores the many ways in which good big-money video content can be monetized. The owner of this website, News Corp, remains one of the most aggressive in moving into the app-based world. Comcast, which probably saved itself when it became a big-money video content company and not just a big-money, video distribution company, is also aggressively trying to skate to where the distribution-puck is going. I used to be short Comcast from like 2005 to 2007 (I quit trading/owning stocks when I became a TV anchor in late 2007), but I sure wouldn’t be anymore now that they’ve made that transition.

And of course, the easiest way to bet on the future of big-money media conglomerate apps is to simply bet on the all-important underlying platforms that these apps are built upon. Heard of Apple and Google? Yup, go buy ‘em. You don’t have to overthink it.

And here are five Top 5 Apps Lists from the app news and reviews website I personally founded a couple months ago to try to skate where I think that app-puck is going:

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iPhone jailbreaking meets revolutionomics: Who owns your device anyway?

Do you own the products you purchase from Apple? Or do they still own them even after you’ve paid good money for the right to “own” an Apple product? CNet news reports that Apple’s filed an application innocently enough called “Systems and Methods for Identifying Unauthorized Users of an Electronic Device.” And so you might think that these would be systems and methods for people like me who had his iPad stolen out of the bottom of his cart at Whole Foods whose camera systems were later found to have mysteriously not kept the footage of that section of the store during the time in question…but the CNet article pulls some quotes directly from the patent app (not to be confused with an app about patents, which would be a pretty cool app for the US Patent Office to release, no

Visit link:
iPhone jailbreaking meets revolutionomics: Who owns your device anyway?

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New Delicious Apple iPad Commercial

I’m no Apple fanboy despite having owned the stock from $7 to $160 and loving many of their products. But here’s another great ad from the people at Apple who are almost as good at marketing as they are at design.

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Bet on apps any way you can

Several years ago, Jim Cramer heard from my editor that I was thinking about starting a hedge fund.  Jim called me and invited me to his office to question him about his experiences what it’d take to succeed as a hedge fund manager.  Part of what he told me that day went straight into my funding presentation – Bet big when the odds are in your favor, bet smaller when you’re less convinced, and don’t bet at all if you’re not sure.  Originally an ol’ racehorse handicapping saw, it’s certainly true for anybody who’s risking money (or risking time and energy too, of course).

Read more from the original source:
Bet on apps any way you can

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Introducing AppConsumer “Top 5 Apps” Lists

The future is all apps, all the time.  At least as far as interacting with the network will be concerned.  At least as far as talking and chatting and watching TV and videos and movies and listening to music and just about everything else you do with technology is concerned. And at this stage of this new age, everybody I know with a smartphone is always wondering if there’s an app or two (or ten) that they should have on their phone.  But rather than going thru review after review of each of the millions of apps out there, we at AppConsumer.com , my app news and reviews website, have come up with a novel way for people to quickly find the best apps for each individual — Top 5 App Lists .  We’ve got both user-generated Top 5 App Lists, we’ve got Editor-approved Top 5 App Lists and coming soon…we’ll have Celebrity App Lists. Why Top 5

Excerpt from:
Introducing AppConsumer “Top 5 Apps” Lists

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